Architectural design rules of solar system based on kinematic model predicts an early demise of phobos - A moon of mars

Mars-Phobos-Deimos is a text book example of Architectural Design Rules of Solar Systems derived from Kinematic Model (KM) of tidally interacting binaries. Architectural Design Rules predict that the Phobos and Deimos have been accreted in the equatorial plane of Mars from the extra-martian impact generated debris disk and are born at inner Clarke’s orbit (aG1) in kinematic model (KM) also known as synchronous orbit aasyn ≈ 6 Mars radii (RMars) in classical mechanics about 4.5Gy ago. Since (aG1) is an energy maxima hence it is an unstable equilibrium orbit and slightest perturbation causes Phobos to tumble short of (aG1) and Deimos to tumble long of (aG1). As a result Phobos is launched on a sub-synchronous orbit rapidly spiraling-in to its certain doom on a gravitationally runaway collapsing spiral path very similar to in-spiral, merger and ring down of black hole binaries. Deimos is launched on a super-synchronous orbit spiraling out at snail’s pace because of vanishingly small mass ratio of the moon and planet. Presently Phobos is at 2.9RMars well within Roche’s Limit of 3.02RMars and hence it is under considerable tidal stress and may undergo material’s failure and may form a ring around Mars much as we have a Saturnian ring. If it survives the tidal stress it will make a direct collision with Mars in 10My from now since it is rapidly losing its altitude at the rate of 21cm/y according to KM. A recent advanced simulation study by Canup and Salmon (2018) confirm all the findings mentioned above except the doomsday of Phobos thereby corroborating the theoretical results of KM and validating KM itself.. Recent Mars Express (Burns 1978, Witasse et.al 2013) results show that the altitude loss is at 1.8cm/yr and the doomsday will occur in 100My. Bills et al. (2005) and Ramslay & Head III(2013) have reported altitude loss rate at 4cm/yr and doomsday at 30-50My. Black and Tushar (2015) have predicted that, in 20 to 40My, Phobos will be tidally pulverized into a dust ring around Mars at ( ~ 1.6RMars). The doomsday of Phobos according to Minton and Hesselbrock (2017) is at 70My.All the above results are based on elasto-viscous model of tidally interacting binary. Whereas present research is based on KM. The ultimate validation of these results will come from future Interplanetary Laser Ranging Missions(ILRM) notably from Phobos Laser Ranging Mission(PLRM) .