Incidence des variabilitespluviometriquessur les productions agricoles au sud du tchad

Agricultural production depends on the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall. In southern Chad, the rain is a real sawtooth and affects the price of food. The objective of this article is to analyze the effects of climate change on the production of sesame, corn, sorghum and peanuts in southern Chad (Moundou, Laï, Pala, Doba and Bongor). The data used are pluviometric data (1960-2015), production data, yields and agricultural areas (1980-2015). The methodology essentially consisted of the analysis of the rainfall indices, the determination of the periods of failure, the estimation of the effects of rainfall variations on agricultural production by correlation calculations, linear regression residuals and principal component analyzes. (ACP). The main results obtained show that rainfall varies constantly in space and time and that this variation affects agricultural production and yield. The prices of different commodities also vary with variations in the rain. From 1998 to 2015, prices increased between 35 and 70%, weakening the purchasing power of producers. The analyzes also showed the link between agricultural area and food prices. It is important to integrate all these parameters into econometric calculations to improve peasant living conditions.